Tigray conflict

The Tigray conflict is an ongoing armed conflict that began in November 2020 in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, between two sides: the Tigray Regional Government that is led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF); and forces supporting Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, with the latter also receiving support from president Isaias Afwerki's Eritrean Forces.

To distance the country's politics from ethnic federalism, Abiy merged the ethnic and region-based parties of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which had governed Ethiopia for 30 years, into the new Prosperity Party. The TPLF, a politically powerful entity that had dominated Ethiopian politics during those 30 years, refused to join the new party, and alleged that Abiy Ahmed became an illegitimate ruler by rescheduling the general elections set for 29 August 2020 (which Abiy postponed twice before from the regular May 2020 election date, before COVID-19) to an undetermined date in 2021 due to COVID-19.

The TPLF, led by Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, went ahead with regional elections in Tigray in September 2020 in defiance of the federal government, which declared the Tigray election illegal. Several journalists were barred by the federal government (at Addis Ababa airport) from traveling to cover Tigray's regional election. Fighting between the TPLF and the Federal Government began with the 4 November attacks on the Northern Command bases and headquarters of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in Tigray Region by TPLF aligned security forces and with attacks by the ENDF in the Tigray Region on the same day, that federal authorities described as a police action.

The federal forces captured the Tigrayan capital Mekelle on 28 November, after which Prime Minister Abiy declared the Tigray operation 'over'. The TPLF stated that it would continue fighting, until the 'invaders' are out.

Historical/political
Following the end of the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991, Ethiopia became a dominant-party state under the rule of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based parties. The founding and most influential member was the TPLF and the chairperson was Meles Zenawi, who was the Prime Minister of Ethiopia until his death in 2012.

The TPLF used to be part of the Ethiopian governing coalition until its 2019 refusal to merge into the Prosperity Party. In 2020, tensions between the government and the TPLF escalated in the months before the November Tigray military intervention. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is of Oromo descent, accused the TPLF Party Members in the Tigray Regional Government of undermining his authority. By contrast, the Tigray authorities saw the refusal to recognise the September 2020 election for the Tigray parliament (which, along with all elections in Ethiopia, had been delayed by the federal elections board because of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia) as the reason for the outbreak of the conflict. Abiy Ahmed's government considered the September Tigray election to be illegal. The warming of relations between Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who is poorly regarded in Tigray, was also considered to have fuelled the tension. In late October, the Ethiopian Reconciliation Commission stated that it was trying to mediate between the federal and Tigrayan governments, but that pre-conditions set by both sides were blocking progress.

As tension continued to grow, a general appointed by Abiy was prevented by the Tigrayan government from taking on his military post. The day prior to the TPLF's 4 November Northern Command attacks, the federal parliament of Ethiopia had suggested designating the TPLF as a terrorist organization.

Constitutional context
The 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia states in Article 39.1, "Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession."

Article 62.9 grants HoF the right to "order Federal intervention if any State [government], in violation of [the] Constitution, endangers the constitutional order."

In late September 2020, the TPLF stated that the constitutional term limit of the HoF, the House of Peoples' Representatives (HoPR), the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers was 5 October 2020, and that for this reason, it would consider "the incumbent" constitutionally illegitimate after 5 October. TPLF proposed replacing the government by a technocratic caretaker government as detailed in a plan posted on Facebook by the Coalition of Ethiopian Federalist Forces.

Course of the conflict
On 4 November 2020, TPLF and Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers came into conflict during the TPLF attacks on the ENDF Northern Command headquarters in Mekelle, the Fifth Battalion barracks in Dansha, and other Northern Command bases. Several people were killed and the TPLF claimed the attack was carried out in "self-defense."

In retaliation, an Ethiopian offensive was launched which was accompanied by a declaration of a state of emergency and a shutdown of government services in the region. During the subsequent days, skirmishes continued and the Ethiopian parliament declared the creation of an interim government for Tigray. Ethiopian offensives in the north were accompanied with airstrikes and several towns and cities were retaken.

On the night from 9 to 10 November, 600 civilians, mostly Amharans and Welkait, were killed in a massacre in the town of Mai Kadra with machetes and knives used by local militias and police loyal to the TPLF, according to preliminary investigations by Amnesty International and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. Two days later, refugees interviewed by the Daily Telegraph, The Guardian and the The New York Times stated that Amhara militias, including Fano, and the ENDF carried out beatings and a massacre of 20 Tigrayans in Humera. Humera was shelled from the direction of the Eritrean–Ethiopian border for two days around 9–11 November. The ENDF gained control of Humera on 12 November.

On 14 November 2020, Tigrayan forces launched rockets at the Eritrean capital of Asmara, but the missiles missed. In addition Tigrayan forces fired a rocket towards Bahir Dar and Gondar cities in the Amhara region in the late hours of Nov. 13, 2020.

By 18 November, Abiy claimed that Ethiopia Defense Force had captured the cities of Shire and Axum with battles continuing around Mekelle; Ethiopian forces further claimed to have taken some land south of the city. On 23 November, the government issued an ultimatum giving the rebels 72 hours to surrender. On 26 November, after the ultimatum ended, Abiy ordered federal military forces to launch an attack on Mekelle. On 28 November, the Ethiopian government announced that it had taken control of the city, bringing "the last phase of its law enforcement operation" to an end. The TPLF said they would continue fighting. TPLF Chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, confirmed the TPLF was withdrawing from Mekelle. Thousands of people were believed to have been killed in the conflict and around 44,000 have fled to Sudan.

On 29 November claims that South Sudan was harboring Debretsion, led to the Ethiopian ambassador to South Sudan abruptly returning to Ethiopia, and South Sudanese diplomats in Ethiopia allegedly being given 72 hours to leave the country. On 2 December the United Nations was promised humanitarian access to the territory held by ENDF in the Tigray Region. The first UN convoy reached Mekelle on 12 December. On 16 December the EU delayed financial aid to Ethiopia citing the governments restrictions against UN humanitarian aid as the reason.

On 15 December 4 Sudanese soldiers were killed, and 27 others were injured near the border with Ethiopia, in what Sudan claims to be an ambush by Ethiopian forces and militias. A soldier later claimed that Ethiopian forces had launched artillery attacks on them and intruded into the Jebel al-Teyyour area, located 7 kilometres inside Sudan. Other soldiers claim that the attackers were Amhara militias. Ethiopia claimed the clashes were Ethiopia trying to stop a Sudanese militia which had tried to cross into Ethiopian territory and seize farmlands.

In repose to the killings, Sudan started to build-up its military along the border with Ethiopia. Military sources claimed that Sudan had recaptured Jebel Abutiour. Then on 19 December Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces were reported to have taken areas previously taken by Ethiopia and Amhara militias in Al Qadarif.

On the same day, 150 civilians were reported to have been killed by Eritrean forces in Edaga Hamus.

Humanitarian crises
According to the United Nations (UN), some 2.3 million children are cut off from desperately needed aid and humanitarian assistance. The Ethiopian federal government has strictly controlled access to the Tigray region (since the start of the conflict), and the UN said it is frustrated that talks with the Ethiopian government have not yet secured adequate humanitarian access. These include, "food, including ready-to-use therapeutic food for the treatment of child malnutrition, medicines, water, fuel and other essentials that are running low" said UNICEF.

Possible COVID-19 outbreaks are feared as refugees fleeing the Tigray conflict are sheltering in crowded camps.

As of December 2020, the UN estimates more than one million people have been internally displaced by the fighting. More than 50,000 people have fled to Sudan due to the conflict. Communications and travel links remain severed with the Tigray region since the deadly conflict broke out on Nov. 4, and Human Rights Watch is warning that “actions that deliberately impede relief supplies” violate international humanitarian law.

Food has also run out for the nearly 100,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray.

The fighting has killed thousands, according to International Crisis Group. The U.N. has in November 2020 reported that people in Tigray are fleeing their capital city. Abiy's government had warned them of "no mercy" if residents didn't move away from the TPLF leaders, whom they accused of hiding among the population.

Role of online social networks
Claire Wilmot, writing in The Washington Post, speculated that Internet restrictions imposed by the Abiy government during the Tigray conflict might be motivated by a wish to deescalate the conflict. She argued that much of the Twitter activity that she analysed was authentic English-language communication by members of the Ethiopian diaspora, with the hashtag #StopTheWarOnTigray, and aiming to complement the "one-sided and highly dangerous image" that dominated views on the conflict. Wilmot saw the Tigray conflict-related Ethiopian online activity as mostly distinct from Ethiopian online hate speech, which in 2019 was mostly in Amharic on Facebook, but also suggested that the lines between authentic online political activity and deliberate misinformation were becoming blurred. Wilmot suggested that the "information vacuum" in the conflict reduced the "ability to verify information".

Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans
Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans in Ethiopia has intensified since the start of the conflict. The situation in Ethiopia is "worrying and volatile" as fighting in the Tigray region continues amid reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans including in Addis Ababa, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said.

Speaking with The New Humanitarian (TNH) in a series of interviews over the past month, half a dozen Tigrayans living in the country's capital described ethnic profiling and growing harassment. Such abuse and discrimination by neighbours, strangers, and government officials. "The war is not a surprise. But what came after the war, the way [Abiy] is doing it, is a surprise" said one witness. Tigrayans, who said they had no connections to the TPLF, told TNH they have felt targeted too. Some said they have found it harder to get jobs in recent years because of their ethnicity; others said they have fallen out with their neighbours and friends. Others sources have told the BBC that many Tigrayans, who are either current or former members of the armed forces, have been detained or have had their homes searched, and some put under house arrest. When asked for comment, Chief-of-Staff Gen Berhanu Jula told the BBC that this was "a political matter" and he was not in a position to respond. The ethnic profiling and disarming of Tigrayans in not limited to inside Ethiopia, diplomatic and security sources said that between 200 and 300 Tigrayan ethnic African peacekeepers in Somalia had their weapons removed."What do you do when you're a force commander and you find you have 200 or 300 soldiers who can't go into battle because of their ethnicity?" a security source told Reuters.

Foreign Policy newspaper reported that, the Ethiopian government has also been rounding up ethnic Tigrayan security forces deployed in United Nations and African peacekeeping missions abroad and forcing them onto flights to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, where it is feared they may face torture or even execution, based on an internal U.N. document. Furthermore, this allegation of ethnic profiling is not limited to Tigrayan members of the military and the police.

Human Rights Watch said they have received reports of Tigrayans outside of Tigray region being harassed on the street, profiled at airports and cafes, and having their homes arbitrarily searched by Ethiopian security forces. A Tigrayan civilian witness BBC talked to (who asked to remain anonymous fearing for her safety) said, a group of armed people, who appeared to be members of the security forces, came to her home, searched it thoroughly, seized bank statements and took away her father, who makes his living as a driver.

The situation has worsened over the past month. Several of the Tigrayans said, police officers have harassed them on the streets of Addis Ababa after checking their identity cards, which indicate their region of birth.One woman, originally from Tigray, said members of her family who work for the government had their homes searched by armed men who took an inventory of their valuable household items – including their fridge, sofa and jewellery – shortly after the conflict broke out. Addressing the alleged discrimination she has suffered, the woman whose home was searched said: "Either [the government] are doing it without knowing the consequences, or they're really out to get Tigrayans all over the country and create a new enemy."

Bank accounts frozen, homes searched
The National Bank of Ethiopia has ordered the suspension of bank accounts opened in Tigray, according to reports in local media. It also ordered bank branches to close in the region. The freeze affected three of the six Tigrayans in Addis Ababa that The New Humanitarian (TNH) talked to. One provided a photograph of their bank teller's computer screen, which confirmed the account was not working. Fearing arrest or physical assault if they leave their houses, some of the Tigrayans told TNH they haven't worked for weeks and fear their savings will run out.

Accusing or dismissing UN, AU and Ethiopian government civil workers for their ethnicity
The Ethiopian federal government has without any evidence accused the highest-profile Tigrayan, the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Director-General Tedros Adhanom, of working for Tigray's forces "to get weapons". It however offered no evidence backing this accusation and Tedros also denied this. Western diplomats posted in Geneva too said that there was no evidence against him. Tedros added and said, "I am on only one side and that is the side of peace".

In a separate incident inside Ethiopia, Ethiopian police visited the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff, according to an internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters. The U.N. report said that the local police chief informed the WFP office of "the order of identifying ethnic Tigrayans from all government agencies and NGOs".

Tigrayan employees at Ethiopian Airlines – pilots, caterers, technicians, and security guards among them – have also reportedly been instructed by their supervisors to stay at home until further notice, TNH reported. An employee The Daily Telegraph talked to said “Security officials took over our workplace and told me to leave,” says Kebede Girmay, who did not want to use their real name. “I love my job. I even rejected offers to go elsewhere. But I was treated like a foreign enemy”.

The security head of the African Union (AU) peacekeeping missions, a Tigrayan ethnic general called Gebreegziabher Mebratu Melese, has also been fired in November 2020, based on the recommendation of the Ethiopian federal government. Chair of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat dismissed Gebreegziabher, after a 10 November 2020 letter from Ethiopia's Defense Ministry.

National

 * The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) condemned the "decision of President Mustafe to portray Somalis in Ethiopia as supporters of the war against Tigray".
 * On November 12, 2020, the TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael denied allegations that the TPLF had surrendered, stating that "we are still holding. These people cannot defeat us. We cannot be beaten."
 * On November 27, Ethiopian Attorney General, Gedion Timothewos, pressed by the BBC's Stephen Sackur to clarify if his country was now "sinking into civil war", responded: "If the Prime Minister were to let the TPLF go on with the kind of things they have been doing, if he had let them acquire the heavy weaponry they wanted to acquire by attacking the Northern Command, yes, we would have descended into that kind of situation; but by taking the measures we are taking right now, we will be able to avert that possibility."
 * When Ethiopian Prime minister Lt. Col. Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, he made significant reforms to the country's judicial system, economy and foreign policy. According to an article by Hailemariam Desalegn, the former prime minister of Ethiopia, TPLF officials were concerned these moves were going to threaten their political and economic position in the country. Thus TPLF officials started defying the orders from the federal government and made overt and covert actions to undermine and delegitimize the Ethiopian parliament, defense forces and the federal government.

International

 * The United Nations (UN) warned of the emergence of a major humanitarian crisis, if a full-scale conflict arose.
 * The African Union (AU) appealed for cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians.
 * Canadian Foreign Minister François-Philippe Champagne called on all parties to show restraint. Champagne also called for a peaceful solution and protection of civilians.
 * Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh expressed strong support for Abiy, saying that he had chosen to "restore law and order at the federal level, and punish those seeking to break up the country" and dismissed the prospect of negotiations, saying that the TPLF had "structured itself so as to bring the central government to its knees" and that talks could "only lead to the partition of Ethiopia", as they would set a precedent under which other regional groups would be able to assert their own secessionist claims.
 * British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said he had spoken with Abiy and urged "de-escalation of the Tigray conflict" and further stated that "civilians and humanitarian access must be protected".
 * U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged de-escalation of the conflict and immediate action to restore peace, and emphasized the importance of protecting civilians. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's foreign policy adviser Antony Blinken expressed deep concern over the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, ethnic violence and threats to peace and security in the area. He called on the TPLF to protect civilians and take steps to end the conflict.
 * Worldwide, humanitarian organisations and the scientific community asked for a rapid ceasefire and delivery of humanitarian aid to the people of Tigray.
 * The European Commission said it was mobilizing an initial €4 million in emergency aid, in order to assist displaced Ethiopian refugees who had fled to Sudan.
 * Minister of Foreign Affairs (Turkey) Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said the government of Turkey understands the decision of the federal government of Ethiopia to take action to maintain law and order in the region. "He expressed his confidence that the operation would end soon and not compromise the safety of civilians," the statement said.
 * The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, urged the warring parties in the Ethiopia's Tigray region to give clear instructions to their forces to take all the precautions and protect civilians from the hostilities.
 * The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi, during a visit to the Um Raquba camp, maintained that Sudan required $150m in aid to support the high number of Ethiopian refugees who had fled across the Sudanese border.

Protests by diaspora abroad
Outside Ethiopia, people of Tigrayan diaspora, as well as those of Eritrean descent, took to the streets to protest against the conflict. These protests included:
 * On 9 November in Washington D.C. (USA)
 * On 12 November in Denver, Colorado (USA)
 * On 14 November in The Netherlands
 * On 18 November in Las Vegas (USA)
 * On 21 November in Stavanger (Norway)
 * On 25 November in South Africa
 * On 1 December in Brussels (Belgium), at the headquarters of the European Union


 * On 28 December in Denver, Colorado (USA)


 * On 3 January 2021 in Aurora, Colorado (USA)